What goes up in real estate must come down, and the longest-running upward trend in sales and appreciation in 40 years of real estate history in the Aspen market has been six years.
Last year was the fifth year of an “up market,” Aspen Appraisal Group’s Randy Gold said Wednesday at the Aspen Board of Realtors 2015-16 Market Overview luncheon at the Hotel Jerome. Roughly 150 real estate industry professionals and community members attended the event.
Gold paired up with Sotheby’s Broker Andrew Ernemann for an optimistic presentation of the state of the Aspen real estate market. They touted signs of strength that haven’t been seen since pre-recession days, such as 2015 potentially being the first year in more than a decade when prospective buyers outnumber listings.
There are 15 percent more high-end listings compared to a year ago in the $5 million to $10 million range, Gold said, while the supply of $10 million-plus and $20 million-plus listings is about the same as last year — large.
“This part of the market is still very over-supplied with five-plus years of inventory,” Gold said.
He predicted three to five sales in that ultra-high-end market over $20 million this year, noting three Aspen closings already in the first 40 days of 2015 over $10 million, with three more under contract — including one fore more than $20 million.
With condominiums in Aspen, the number of sales is just now exceeding the number of listings, Ernemann said, noting the last time that happened was in 2003-04.
“We all know what happened after 2003-04 — we went on a remarkable real estate run,” he said. “So it’s with some trepidation that I see this because I’m a little nervous, because when condo prices went up about 19 percent on average last year in Aspen, that’s a big jump, and what’s going to happen as we go forward?”
But there’s pressure in Aspen against brand-new construction, penthouses and large townhouses that’s pushing prices up, he said, but that also adds to the buzz of where the market is and where it’s going, Ernemann said.
There were eight condominium sales in 2014 at more than $2,000 per square foot in the Aspen core, he said, as well as the first-ever sale at more than $3,000 per square foot — the Muse Building penthouse for $15.8 million at $3,100 per square foot.
Ernemann compared Aspen with places such as Manhattan, London and European ski resorts where $3,000, $4,000 and even $5,000 per-square-foot price tags are common for condos, predicting that Aspen should start to see $3,000-per-square-foot price tags become more commonplace.
Another positive market trend in 2014 were land sales. Gold noted that land sales look like they could follow the same trend seen with Aspen condos where sales outpace listings.
“It signals an under-supplied market and bodes well for even more appreciation coming up,” Gold said. “There’s a couple (lots) under contract that when they close, you’re absolutely going to be shaking your head. I’m shaking my head now and I really don’t get it — they’re pretty big numbers.”
Read Full Article here: http://www.aspentimes.com/news/15024619-113/aspen-areas-real-estates-high-note-continues-with-caution-ahead
What is not shown is the Fractional Market: Erik Cavarra highlights a few examples:
|Market Data Report
190 Re-Sale Listings Currently On Aspen/Snowmass
|Residences at Snowmass Club Listings: 24|
|RECENTLY CLOSED: (2) Two Bedroom PRC, (2) Three Bedroom PRC|
Year by Year Comparison: Average Fractional Sold Price
|Aspen/Snowmass Fractional Market: Year-to-Date Stats
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